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Protection Through Prevention: A Randomized Study of Data-Driven Performance Management in Police Wellness
Abstract: Police agencies increasingly rely on early intervention systems to identify officers at elevated risk of adverse outcomes, yet these systems are typically threshold-based, disciplinary in nature, and rarely evaluated. This talk presents evidence from a randomized evaluation of a data-driven performance management system implemented in a large urban police department. The program replaces traditional complaint or force thresholds with a weighted, longitudinal risk model and pairs risk identification with non-punitive outreach focused on sworn officer wellness.
Using officer-level panel data and a staggered randomized control trial design, the study assesses whether precision employee contact informed by risk analytics alters officer behavioral trajectories over time. Results show no pre-treatment differences and reveal gradual, sustained reductions in risk scores following intervention, suggesting that data-informed supervision can function as a preventive personnel policy tool rather than a disciplinary mechanism.
The findings have implications beyond policing for how public organizations design personnel monitoring systems, integrate analytics into supervision, and use early intervention to improve employee outcomes without relying on punitive processes.
Dr. Aeric Koerner is the Analysis Administrator for the Tucson Police Department, where he oversees the department’s units focused on data infrastructure, applied policy research, business intelligence, crime analytics, and the City of Tucson’s Real-Time Crime Center. He holds a Ph.D. in Public Administration and Policy with a focus on applied econometric modeling. Within TPD, Dr. Koerner has led efforts to embed evidence-based strategies to strengthen officer wellness interventions, reduce gun violence, and enhance community policing. He brings a decade of practical and academic experience supporting the evaluation and evolution of criminal justice systems.
Audience: Open to all- including community members, alumni, students, and employees